India’s grand strategy

12 Dec 2022 India’s grand strategy

Significance for Prelims: Not Much

Significance for Mains: ‘ China Test’ for the solution to contemporary India’s principal strategic contradiction. 

News: China is emerging as contemporary India’s principal strategic contradiction after the recent Chinese Party Congress(CPC). Every other challenge, be it Pakistan, internal insurgencies, and difficulties in relations with its neighbours, are secondary contradictions. India needs to go through the ‘China test’ to prioritise strategic decision-making in the longer run.

Elements of the ‘China test’ consists of assessment such as

• Whether an Indian decision or a specific regional development squares with Chinese regional strategy or interests. 
• Whether the decision of India or certain regional development requires India to make modifications at the level of secondary contradictions like Pakistan, internal insurgencies, and difficulties in relations with its neighbours. 
• Whether it requires a change in internal policy on the part of India for the ‘China test’. 

Utility of the ‘China test’ with respect to various countries:

• India-U.S. relations: India has had a complicated relationship with the U.S., but recently it is getting normalised and interests-driven. Washington is seeking to re-engage with southern Asia (Pakistan, Indo-Pacific, and even with  Taliban) after its haste withdrawal from South Asia. Various analysis of the standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control in 2020 or Galwan clash shows that it may be due to India’s growing proximity to the U.S. So, questions arise should India temper its relations with the U.S. to keep Beijing’s aggression at bay or India continue the strategic partnership with the U.S. neglecting China. 
• India- Pakistan relations: In South Asia, Pakistan is the biggest adversary of India. ‘ China Test’ involves whether India should pacify its relationship with Pakistan or use offensive defence. 
• India-Russia relations: After the Ukraine war, today, India-Russia relations are the most debated bilateral relationships. China tests involve “Does continuing its relationship with Russia help India better deal with the China challenge?”. 

Way Forward:

• India should avoid the short-term temptation of not being on the wrong side of China to achieve its long-term goals: China is apprehensive of American re-engagement of the region or growing India-U.S. proximity as Beijing seeks to dominate the region. But India should not invariably play into the Chinese strategy of boxing India in the region. India should India-U.S. strategic engagement in the area will help India to meet its long-term objectives.

• India should go for relative peace with Pakistan to better deal with China: The best-case scenario for China is that India is preoccupied with Pakistan, which ensures India is distracted from the growing threat from China. Hence, Beijing got an opportunity to displace traditional Indian primacy in South Asia. So, India’s course correction on Pakistan is a strategically sensible one.
• India should seek to balance Chinese power in Southern Asia instead of the balance of power in South Asia with Pakistan. India should seek pacification of conflicts with Pakistan to focus on China.
• India should avoid opposition to American engagement with Pakistan as it would ultimately prevent Pakistan from going into the China camp. For India, Pakistan being shunned by the U.S. and the West is worse than Pakistan engaged with the U.S. and the West. 
• India should not completely break away from Russia: Even after strong opposition from the west regarding India’s relations with Russia. India refused to stop engagement with Moscow and condemned its aggression against Ukraine. India-Russia relations are on the wane, but the growing proximity between Moscow and Beijing is a strong rationale for New Delhi to continue its relationship with Moscow. 

Conclusion: India’s grand strategic planning and decision-making involves primacy to the ‘China Test’  and conclusion from China test smart balancing China in Southern Asia and beyond. 

Further reading:

1. One Belt One Road(OBOR)
2. CPEC
3. Line of Actual Control(LAC)

Mains(2017): 

1. ‘China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’. In light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbour. 

Source: The Hindu

Article: The role of the ‘China Test’ in India’s grand strategy( Happymon Jacob) 

Article Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-role-of-the-china-test-in-indias-grand-strategy/article66252325.ece 

sharad