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Bangladesh election results in geopolitical context.

17 Jan 2024 Bangladesh election results in geopolitical context.

Posted at 12:47h in Daily current-affairs by
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Source – The Hindu and PIB.

General Studies: International Relations, International Organizations, Official Development Assistance (ODA), Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Act East Policy, Rapid Action Battalion, Indo-Pacific Economic Forum or Quad.

Why in the News ?

  • January 2024 General elections are over in Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has secured her fifth term as the head of the government. His party Awami League has won a landslide victory on 223 seats, that is, his party has won three-fourth of the seats in the Jatiya Sansad.
  • After election victories in 2008, 2014 and 2018, this time Sheikh Hasina’s fourth consecutive term is beginning. In such a situation, continuity can be expected in the politics and foreign policy of Bangladesh.
  • Bangladesh is largely dependent on foreign investment and development cooperation to develop its infrastructure. Bangladesh is the largest recipient of official development assistance (ODA) among South Asian countries. However, it is unlikely that the equations determining the current elections will have any impact on Bangladesh’s bilateral relations. In fact, this will be visible in the development related scenario also.

Strategic importance of Bangladesh in geo-strategic form :

  • Situated at the head of the Bay of Bengal and near the confluence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, Bangladesh is a geo-strategically important country in the Indo-Pacific.
  • The geographical location of Bangladesh gives it additional freedom or facility to monitor or keep an eye on important routes of ships on sea routes. Through these routes, ships laden with oil travel through the Gulf countries to East Asia through the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Therefore, in a future full of energy insecurity, Bangladesh is an important partner for many major powers who want uninterrupted supply of fuel without any interruption for their growing economy and high density population.
  • Bangladesh’s untapped hydrocarbon reserves in the Bay of Bengal increase its importance as a potential partner in energy cooperation.
  • In recent years, Bangladesh’s political stability, fast-growing economy, cheap labor costs, lack of strict environmental controls, and a government eager to promote development partnerships have highlighted its importance as an attractive country for investment. Has been increased further.
  • Among the major Indo-Pacific powers, the US, China, India and Japan contribute the most to different sectors of Bangladesh’s economy. These include its foreign earnings including trade, foreign direct investment and contribution to foreign aid for development.
  • According to the world’s important magazine Forbes, the most interesting and important aspect is that all these four countries are among the five largest economies of the world in terms of their respective GDP in 2024.
  • For China, Bangladesh is an important means of establishing a foothold in the Bay of Bengal region and an important starting point in its flagship initiative Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
  • With the deterioration in relations with India, Sri Lanka’s debt crisis and the current political instability in Myanmar, Bangladesh is the best opportunity for China to break away from its ‘East Asia mold‘ and strengthen its maritime presence in the Indian Ocean. There is an option.
  • The important fact is that Bangladesh, like most countries in South Asia, also has a ready market for Chinese manufactured goods and China is its largest trading partner.
  • From the perspective of America’s vested interests, Bangladesh is the most important means of strengthening its position in the region amidst the current geopolitical turmoil and instability caused by the rise of China.
  • Bangladesh is also a major partner of America in its fight against terrorism.
  • The US is also the second largest trading partner for Bangladesh and the largest export trading hub for its major export product, ready-made garments.
  • Along with this, Bangladesh receives the maximum amount of USAID (American aid) in South Asia.
  • For Japan, Bangladesh is a potential point of contact through which it can increase its connectivity with the neighboring countries of South and South-East Asia and deliver its goods to the markets there.
  • In contrast to all this, Japan is the largest source of official development assistance (ODA) for Bangladesh.

Strategic position of India – Bangladesh relations :

  • Bangladesh is a ‘natural partner’ for India, carved out of its eastern region, which treats Bangladesh as a strategic ally.
  • Geographically, Bangladesh is in the strongest and best position to provide a sea route to India’s landlocked Northeast and to support and promote India’s ‘Act East Policy’ and ‘Neighborhood First’ policies. Is.
  • India is Bangladesh’s third largest trading partner and an important way for connectivity with Nepal and Bhutan.
  • Australia is also gradually trying to strengthen its partnership with Bangladesh through development assistance as it considers it in the national interest to maintain peace and stability in the north-eastern Indian Ocean.
  • Given this interdependence between the world’s major economic powers and Bangladesh, there is a need for flourishing bilateral relations, especially for Bangladesh as its economy is hampered by a number of challenges which have resulted in its economy suffering the most. There is danger of decline.
  • Economic interests and needs have already compelled India to develop hydropower projects and promote mutual trading of electricity in the region.
  • In recent years, India’s economic needs and the threat from China have increased the importance of South Asian countries for it, not only bilaterally but in terms of the entire region. Therefore, India has shown great interest in promoting electricity connectivity both within itself and among other countries. A significant increase is being seen in the electricity supply network and petroleum pipelines from India to the rest of South Asia. In 2019, India laid a petroleum supply pipeline to Nepal, the first pipeline between two countries in South Asia, through which 28 lakh tonnes of diesel is being supplied.
  • In March 2023, India and Bangladesh started the work of laying a pipeline to supply one million tonnes of diesel every year. Similarly, there were discussions to establish similar pipeline connectivity with Sri Lanka in July 2023.
  • India has also signed several agreements with its neighbors for power supply. In the emerging equations of demand and supply in the power supply sector in South Asia, India is now emerging as a force which is promoting economic integration, trade and connectivity in the region.
  • In 2018, India had relaxed its guidelines for cross border trade in electricity (CBTE). This has paved the way for developing India’s electricity market as the electricity market of South Asia. The connectivity of the electricity grid has allowed countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka to buy, sell and participate in India’s electricity market through the Indian grid. Additionally, the amendment in CBTE guidelines has also opened the way for supply of electricity between the two countries through India.

Balancing diplomacy versus new political dimensions :

  • The major powers of the Indo-Pacific, mainly the US and China, between which there is competition, have tried to engage and influence Bangladesh, but Bangladesh has adopted a diplomacy of balance in its interactions with these countries. Have taken it forward.
  • The Indo-Pacific Outlook, released in April 2023, besides being a document of Bangladesh’s economic commitment and political non-alignment, is also a declaration of this diplomatic approach of balance.
  • Although the Outlook shares the same key trade and strategic terminology and priorities as the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, it also takes care not to offend China, which views the Indo-Pacific as an American move, which could have adverse effects on its own. Is to control.
  • However, due to the US Indo-Pacific strategy, the release of the Outlook has often been interpreted as a strategic maneuver by Bangladesh to placate the US due to the US’s concern over Bangladesh’s growing closeness with China.
  • The reasons for America’s concern include Bangladesh’s hesitation in supporting America’s Indo-Pacific strategy and China’s refusal to join the Indo-Pacific Economic Forum or Quad (an organization consisting of America, India, Japan and Australia) despite receiving an invitation from America. This also includes Bangladesh’s non-participation in initiatives like the one it considers its adversary).
  • Because of its concerns, the US has actually tried to interfere in the domestic politics of Bangladesh in the last few years in order to exert as much influence as possible on the government of Bangladesh. In 2021, the US imposed sanctions on seven former and current high-level officials of Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion over allegations of human rights violations. US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas also met with the families of the alleged kidnapping victims. This also includes meeting the family of Sajedul Islam Sumon, leader of Bangladesh’s main opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
  • The Biden administration has also not invited Bangladesh to its democracy summits and in its latest move ahead of the 12th general elections, has banned the issuance of US visas to people from Bangladesh whom it suspects will interfere in the democratic elections. Are making hollow. After initially following American instructions, Sheikh Hasina’s government soon started rebuking America regarding democracy and human rights. Because of this, there is clearly tension in the current US-Bangladesh relations. It also needs to be noted that soon after China provided vaccines to Bangladesh during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, it used this opportunity to warn it against joining the Quad.
  • However, when Bangladesh responded strongly by asserting its sovereignty, China held back, assuring PM Sheikh Hasina that she could rely on China to withstand US pressure and enhance economic ties.

Review of foreign policy after Bangladesh elections :

  • Realizing the need for political stability in Bangladesh, the Sheikh Hasina government has been successful during the last 15 years.
  • The Hasina government acknowledged that Bangladesh’s elections are its internal matter and America should not interfere in it. India urged the US not to put too much pressure on the Hasina government as doing so would encourage or encourage the rise of radical elements in Bangladeshi society and thus jeopardize regional stability. As a result, political instability may spread in Bangladesh. Australia did not give any assurance on this issue, so after the elections Bangladesh’s relations with these countries will be strengthened. This will promote a “Golden Chapter” in India-Bangladesh relations and deepen coordination in existing areas of cooperation, as well as expand cooperation between the countries into new areas.
  • Relations with Bangladesh – Japan will also get a new dimension and expansion, with this the North-East of India will become a big area of cooperation between Bangladesh, Japan and India. Contacts with Australia will also be strengthened. However, the same situation cannot be assumed regarding the relations between Bangladesh and America. After the election results were announced, America had issued a statement that Bangladesh’s elections were not free or fair and America had also expressed its concern about alleged election rigging. How Hasina’s government responds to this statement of America remains in the future but America’s stance may force Bangladesh to lean more towards China.
  • The increase in China’s presence in the neighboring country will also cause an uncomfortable situation for India as Bangladesh’s balancing diplomacy in the coming years will increasingly move towards maintaining a balance in its engagement with China and India.
  • It is also likely that Bangladesh will increase its engagement with China if US aid decreases. But the Hasina government is well aware of the world’s concerns about various countries getting badly trapped in China’s debt trap. Thus, the Hasina government will be cautious about its cooperation with China and will simultaneously increase cooperation with Japan and Australia as alternative development partnerships so as to prevent its sole dependence on China and also maintain its political non-alignment. .
  • For mutual interests, Bangladesh will have to maintain its relations with America also, but for this, some efforts of reconciliation will definitely be required from America’s side also. All these strategic decisions will be taken in a gradual process because at present there is little hope that American President Joe Biden or PM Hasina will try to back down from their political stance after achieving a big victory.
  • At present, PM Hasina will have to assure other strategic partners of Bangladesh, international institutions or organizations and even the people of her country about the credibility of her election victory so that America’s narrative can be further strengthened, especially through her opponents. Can be prevented from.
  • Bangladesh is soon going to sign a 25-year deal with Nepal to purchase electricity. Under this, Nepal will export 40 MW electricity to Bangladesh. Due to geographical conditions, this trade of electricity between Nepal and Bangladesh will have to pass through the territories of India. This trade deal – which has already been drafted – will be formalized once a trilateral agreement is signed between Nepal, Bangladesh and India. This will be the first agreement under which two countries in South Asia will trade electricity through India’s power grid. The agreement will fulfill the long standing demand of power supply of Nepal and Bangladesh. Its implementation indicates the increasing demand for electricity and its importance in the small countries of South Asia. This, in the context of India’s changing foreign policy with its neighboring countries, shows that India has intensified efforts to increase connectivity to deal with China’s growing presence in the areas of its neighboring countries.

Domestic compulsions :

  • Bangladesh is struggling with the challenge of meeting the increasing demand for electricity even in the scorching heat. Many areas of Bangladesh are often facing power cuts of 10 to 12 hours. It is not just the common citizens in Bangladesh who are suffering from this electricity shortage. In fact, Bangladesh’s textile industry is also suffering huge losses. The root of this problem is that Bangladesh has been facing a shortage in the supply of coal and natural gas since last year. The main reasons for this are as follows –
  • Not using government companies for exploration of natural resources.
  • Making electricity generation heavily dependent on natural gas.
  • Increase in fuel prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
  • Import of natural gas in European countries due to the ban on export of crude oil from Russia and the resulting rise in prices.
  • Reduction in crude oil production by OPEC plus countries.
  • Rising temperature.

 And

Recently there was a cyclone due to which the electricity supply was cut.

  • Due to adequate sources of water, Nepal wants to promote the export of electricity generated from water. Nepal has been nurturing the dream of exporting electricity generated from hydroelectric projects for a long time. But, due to external shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, the need for Nepal to fulfill this dream has become even greater. Due to these shocks, Nepal’s domestic production, tourism industry and remittances sent by Nepalese abroad have declined significantly, while inflation has increased. For the first time in the last six decades, Nepal has become a victim of economic recession and its foreign exchange reserves have declined drastically. The current situation has posed two main fundamental challenges to Nepal –
  • Its dependence and expenditure on imports.
  • Limited sources of earning foreign exchange.
  • In this case, Bangladesh’s growing economy and demand for electricity is providing an opportunity for Nepal to export its hydropower. Nepal hopes that this export will reduce the import burden and increase the government’s dollar income. Politically, connectivity with Bangladesh will enable Nepal to fulfill its old dream of exporting hydroelectricity and transform Nepal from a landlocked country to a landlocked country. This deal will also give an opportunity to the leaders of Nepal to respond to the nationalist demand of their place, under which they will be able to claim that despite being a small country, Nepal has refused to give concessions to a huge country like ‘big brother’ India. Forced to take. The Prime Minister of Nepal had recently given a statement that in return of giving Kalapani, they would be able to get the way to export their products to Bangladesh through India’s sensitive Siliguri corridor. This makes the point of promoting nationalist sentiments by Nepal’s leaders more correct.

China’s increasing investment in Bangladesh :

  • One of the reasons for India increasing cooperation and contacts with its neighbors is the presence of China in the region.
  • In 2021, Bangladesh Bank data revealed that ‘China has made a total of $450 million foreign direct investment in the energy sector of Bangladesh and all this money is invested in fossil fuel based power plants.’
  • Currently, Bangladesh’s two coal-fired power plants are also funded by China.
  • A total of 1845 MW electricity is generated in these two power plants; Chinese companies have also invested in five more coal-fired power plants producing 4460 MW electricity.
  • In September 2021, at the United Nations General Assembly, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that, ‘China will promote the generation of green and low-carbon electricity in other developing countries and will no longer invest in building new coal-fired power plants abroad Will do.’
  • At present, Bangladesh generates 42 percent of its total electricity generation from heavy fuel.
  • In such a situation, there is a need for Bangladesh to focus on other sources of electricity also. For example – the option of importing electricity from abroad should be adopted because at present Bangladesh buys only five percent of its total electricity requirement from outside.
  • This increases the opportunities for India to invest in the power sector in Bangladesh.
  • After all, India has replaced China and is helping Nepal in building four of these projects, as China is now working very rapidly to establish a power grid across the border with Nepal, hence India has also shown progress in this direction.
  • On the other hand, China’s investment in Nepal’s hydropower sector has been much less than Nepal’s expectations. China has invested and helped Nepal set up hydroelectric projects – such as the Maryisangadi and Tamakoshi projects – but Nepal faces many challenges in this regard.
  • India is the only country that exports power from Nepal, and the revised guidelines of its CBT I prevent power generated from power plants set up with China’s help from being supplied to other neighboring countries through India’s grid. Second, due to political stability, many Chinese companies have withdrawn from projects in Nepal. At the same time, due to technical difficulties and low returns, there is no progress in the hydroelectric projects being built under the BRI project in Nepal, because Nepal has been opposing taking business loans from China.
  • Now India is helping Nepal reach out to its trading partner (i.e. Bangladesh); Promoting greater interdependence and connectivity in the region; Showing greater sensitivity to the demands of our neighbors; And thus, trying to limit China’s presence and influence in the region.

 

Practice Questions for Preliminary Exam :

Q.1. In the current geopolitical context, consider the following statements with reference to the possible impacts in South Asia after the Bangladesh election results.

  1. Relations with Bangladesh – Japan will also get a new dimension and expansion, with this the North-East of India will become a big area of cooperation between Bangladesh, Japan and India.
  2. Bangladesh is the largest recipient of official development assistance (ODA) among South Asian countries.

Which of the above statement /statements is correct ?

(A) Only 1

(B) Only 2

(C )  None of these.

(D) All of these.

Answer – (D)

Practice Questions for Main Exam :

Q.1. Discuss what kind of geopolitical opportunities and complications the currently held Bangladesh election results will create for India? Give a logical explanation.

 

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