01 Dec 2022 Aftermath of 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Significance for Prelims: Not Much
Significance for Mains: Impact of Party Congress on India’s relations with China.
News: China puzzle is becoming more difficult to solve after the Chinese Party Congress and every country in the region are making their own predictions with respect to current development.
20th Party Congress of CCP:
- A hint towards the unpredictable nature of the global situation particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
- Assertions by Chinese President Xi Jinping: He called his Generals, “to enhance troop training and combat preparedness”. He also warned of “dangerous storms ahead” and about external ‘interference’ in Taiwan.
Reading of 20th Party Congress of CCP: Congress provided some clues to China’s current thought processes
- Statements from Party Congress convince the West that China is preparing to go to war over Taiwan.
- Enhancement of Japan’s defence budget: Japan doubled its defence budget to 2% of its GDP.
- Joint Declaration following the recent G20 Summit did not douse fears about an imminent conflict.
- Further failure of Biden-Xi talks, added to existing concerns of global uncertainty while Mr Xi reiterated his stance on Taiwan that Taiwan “was the first red line” and must not be crossed, while Mr Biden told Xi that the U.S. would strengthen its security position in Asia.
- China may be aiming at world conquest through major conflicts.
- Ideological shift in China: Now under Mr.Xi, it’s an ideology that drives policy of the China most of the time. Mr. Xi believes that ‘history is irreversibly on China’s side. His thrust on ‘historical materialism’ again, is indicative of his thought processes.
- Shift to Marxist orthodoxy in the political realm, but less in the economic policy area: Party Congress confirms retreat from Deng era of ‘caution and risk aversion to making changes in the ‘international balance of forces and China entered into ‘leading ranks of the world.
- Preventing the ideological decay of the CCP to avoid the collapse of China like Soviet Communism.
- Prime concern of Xi-Jinping: Safeguarding Communist Party from pernicious ideas so that the West did not succeed in fomenting ‘ideological divisions within China.
- At present protecting the ideological purity and integrity of the party is a priority for Mr Xi and the CCP.
- China’s real intentions seem to avoid past mistakes of the 1950s where the West overestimated the capabilities of China and India failed to correctly read China and Chinese intentions.
India and 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP): No direct reference to India in the party Congress or any post-Congress comments
- India should not be provoked by repeated charges by western sources about China’s nefarious scheme in the Indo-Pacific.
- India should not be involved in the ‘new Cold War in the offing between the U.S. and China.
- Continued Cause of Concerns for India: Border incursions from China are not random it has some design, but they should not be taken as precursors to war.
- China is largely concerned about Aksai Chin due to its proximity to China’s Tibet and Xinjiang.
- For China, U.S.-led West is its principal antagonist: Conflict between China and India is more civilisational than territorial in nature. India’s growing closeness to the U.S. and the West will certainly irk China.
- Quad and other common approaches between India and the U.S. or India and the West perceived as India’s hostile intentions towards China.
- China has its strategic vulnerabilities due to hostile statements between Indian and western leaders at East Asia Summit, ASEAN meets, and the G-20 Summit.
Conclusion: No clear signals emerged from the party congress of CCP. There is the assertion that today’s China is more powerful than before, but there is no hard evidence that China will use power to usher in a new era of ‘the more just’ world. On the other hand, it could be that China may be ‘evaluating international circumstances through the prism of dialectical analysis’, before embarking on a conflict against strategic entities such as the Quad and AUKUS.
Mains( 2021):
Q. “The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of a China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain.
Source: The Hindu
Article: Party Congress over, understanding the China puzzle
Article Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/party-congress-over-understanding-the-china-puzzle/article66205989.ece
Yojna IAS daily current affairs eng med 1st Dec
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