Current Geo-Politics in Central Asia

01 Nov 2022 Current Geo-Politics in Central Asia

Significance for Prelims: Hambantota port; East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM); Gilgit-Baltistan region

Significance for Mains: Power Politics in Central Asia;Pakistan as stabilising factor in Central Asia and Afghanistan; Limitation of China and Pakistan in Geo-Politics; Internal Security issues in Pakistan

News: Now, US-China rivalry enters Central Asia. China is overcoming nuclear disparity with the US with the help of Pakistan.

Major Geo-political powers and Central Asia: 

• United States of America(U.S.A): US’s counterterrorism efforts involve  “secure and stable” Central Asia  and Afghanistan.
• China: SCO is led by China but does not have an ostensible anti-US tilt. The arc of Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan is crucial to Chinese security interests.But, currently China is reluctant to provide a security umbrella to Central Asia or Afghanistan. Central Asia is part of Chinese ambition of becoming a pre-eminent Asiatic power. China also aims to spread their footprints in the Indian Ocean region; the recent docking of Chinese-built Pakistani frigate PNS Taimur at the Colombo port and China’s spy ship Yuan Wang 5 at Hambantota port can be seen in this direction.
• Russia: Continuous Ukraine war exhausted  Russian resources to spare for security situations across Central Asia. Russia may also face the spillover of the deteriorating security situation of Afghanistan or due to the presence of 8,000 to 10,000 foreign fighters in Afghanistan hailing from the north Caucasus region of Russia, Pakistan and China’s Xinjiang province,

Role of Pakistan in ensuring power parity between China and U.S.A in Central Asia:

• China is coordinating with Pakistan across the arc of Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan and beyond to weaken competition from the US across the Indian Ocean region.
• Pakistan also ensures safety of Chinese staff in its country by cracking down on insurgents in the tribal belt in Pakistan. When seven Chinese staff were abducted from a Chinese massage parlour by a “vice and virtue” group of Jamia Hafsa seminary in July 2007, Pakistan’s army initiated operations from Lal Masjid in Islamabad.
• Pakistan helped the Taliban to reach out to the larger world including  Central Asia and China resulting in tactical silence in Afghanistan from  East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM)  and Central Asian terror groups.
• Proxy games played by Pakistan across the arc and beyond using diplomacy as smokescreen put other states in the region at the cusp of  violence regarding border engagement.
• Pakistan played a defining role in the US-Taliban agreement in February 2020.
• Deep state of Pakistan i.e. ISI promoted terror groups like al Qaeda and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)  for lone-wolf acts of terrorism and extremism. 
• China -Pakistan coordination can be seen from the fact of consistent hardening of stance on Line of Actual Control( LAC) with India and holding UN designations of Pakistan-backed terror operatives like Sajid Mir. 
• Pakistan as an “all-weather” nuclear friend of China  will help China to achieve nuclear parity with the United States.

Limitation of Pakistan’s help to China:

• Deteriorating security situation in Pakistan due to direct attacks by Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in tribal areas, including those  in Peshawar and the Swat Valley. 
• Disturbance in Gilgit-Baltistan region due to  frequent hostage situations  created by local TTP fighters of Gilgit-Baltistan to fulfill their demands.
• Rise in Baloch separatism: Recently, Baloch Liberation Army took  army personnel hostage for negotiating the release of Baloch cadres. 
• Failure of the Taliban-mediated talks between the TTP and the Pakistan army. 
• Increased incidents of targeted attacks on Chinese interests in Pakistan by the “bad” Taliban as well as Baloch groups after Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
• Even after engaging deeply with the Taliban ( Mullah Baradar as a Chinese state guest in July 2021) China’s direct influence in Afghanistan remains limited.

Conclusion: Pakistan is a stabilizing factor in the arc of Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Even the US has “calibrated” its  US response towards “dangerous”  Pakistan  to challenge Chinese moves involving Pakistan.But, unlike the on-and-off US-Pakistan engagements, China-Pakistan cooperation is deep spanning the entire gamut of security and geopolitical areas. 

Further readings:

1. Countries in Central Asian Region; 
2. Xinjiang province
3. Line of Actual Control(LAC) 
4. Balochistan region

Source: The Indian Express

Article: The view from Samarkand(Anju Gupta)

Article Link:

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/central-asia-the-new-battleground-for-us-and-china-8235977/ 

sharad