14 May 2021 SUTRA Model: Eyebrows raised

SUTRA Model: Eyebrows raised

CONTEXT

Scientist have raised questions on the government-backed model, called SUTRA, to forecast the rise and ebb of the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientists believe that the model may have played a major role in creating the perception that a second wave of the pandemic was unlikely in India.

SUTRA Model

SUTRA stands for ‘Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach’

Developments and Details

• The scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur and Hyderabad have applied this model to predict the peak of COVID-19 cases.
• SUTRA model uses three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic: Beta or Contact rate: It measures how many people an infected person infects per day. It is related to the R-nought value, which is the number of people an infected person spreads the virus to over the course of their infection.
• Reach: It is a measure of the exposure level of the population to the pandemic Epsilon: It is the ratio of detected and undetected cases.

Issues with SUTRA

•  Many instances of the SUTRA forecasts being far out of bounds of the actual caseload (National Centre for Biological Science)
•  The predictions of the SUTRA model are too variable to guide government policy.
•  Relies on too many parameters and Recalibration done whenever the predictions are different
•  The SUTRA model’s omission of the importance of the behaviour of the virus
• New variants showed up in the SUTRA model as an increase in value of parameters called ‘beta’ (that estimated contact rate).
• As far as the model is concerned, it is observing changes in parameter values. It does not care about what is the reason behind the change

rahul123

Yojna IAS Current Affairs Team