The Eurobomb

04 Nov 2022 The Eurobomb

Significance for Prelims: US Nuclear Umbrella

Significance for Mains: Putin’s nuclear threat and its impact

News: Putin’s miscalculations regarding the Ukraine war are becoming costly for Russia. To reverse the losses Putin recently threatened Europe with Nuclear war.

Components of Moscow’s nuclear doctrine:

• Moscow’s nuclear doctrine states that Russia will  use nuclear weapons if the  existence of the state is threatened due conventional war or attack on Russia.
• Putin turned  “occupied Ukranian territories”  into Russian territory. Hence, any attempts by Ukraine and its Western supporters to liberate occupied territory would be met with a nuclear response. 
• Grave nature of Nuclear situation : Dmitry Medvedev( former Russian President and a close associate of Putin) has made the Nuclear  threat explicit. He has declared that for the defence of  “new Russian territories” Russia is not just going to use just tactical nuclear weapons but also strategic ones. 

Reasons for Russia’s Nuclear threat:

• Dictatorial attitude of Russian President Vladimir Putin: Even before the Ukraine invasion Putin put Russian nuclear weapons under command of the army on alert.
• Russia’s weakening position in Ukraine due to setbacks on the battlefield.
• For domestic political gains: As the Ukraine “war of choice” has gone terribly wrong.
• Moscow’s nuclear doctrine is linked with Russia’s “territorial integrity” : Putin claiming that occupied Ukrainian territories are part of Russia. Hence, seeking political legitimacy for nuclear use.
• Putin’s nuclear war calculations may encourage those in the West who seek a compromise with Russia at the expense of Ukraine. 
• Putin is also hoping for a quick closure of the Ukrainian war through nuclear threat.

Effect of Putin’s threat on  global nuclear security debate: 

• Change in post-War global nuclear order: Many major powers in Europe and Asia start taking a fresh  look at their nuclear policies. 
• Nuclear threat may act as catalyst for nuclear arms race: After threat of use of atomic weapons by Russia on a non-nuclear weapon state like Ukraine.Ukraine, voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons in 1994 in return for guarantees of its security. But security guarantees turned out to be worthless during the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine(2014). 
• World may witness a rise in armed aggression to annex the territory of a neighbours if World fails to check Russia.
• Use of nuclear weapons for offensive or coercive purposes will become normal: Till now,the prospect of national suicide  acted as a self-deterrent to prevent nuclear weapon use. But with Putin’s remark many fidayeen states may receive populist support to use nuclear weapons. 
• Europe may develop its own nuclear weapons: EU members except France voluntarily gave up their nuclear weapon options by signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and since then relied on the US nuclear umbrella for security. 
• Rethink in security policies of European states: Now, more emphasis on building defence capabilities, and  more “strategic autonomy” vis-a-vis the US. 
• Nuclear threat from Russia may rearrange European geopolitics in favour of Russia but his miscalculations in Ukraine may change European security order detriment of Russia.
• Boost in strength of  NATO’s nuclear forces and US nuclear umbrella over Europe through new deployments of US nuclear weapons in Europe, wider nuclear sharing arrangements, and stronger conventional deterrent capabilities.

Conclusion: During his address Putin added that nuclear threat “is not a bluff.” This nuclear threat emerging from Russia ‘s side will change the nature of global nuclear security debate. European Union is already stressed due to unreliable unclear security umbrella of United States and flip-flop of U.S.’s NATO policy because of domestic politics of United States. Russia may be able to rearrange the geopolitics of Europe, although it might not be in its favour. Europe may proceed towards developing Eurobomb having “European dimension” and France may take the lead in turning the French nuclear arsenal into a European deterrent.

Further readings:

1. Region surrounding Crimea
2. Concept of Strategic autonomy. Nuclear deterrence
3. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
4. India’s Nuclear Doctrine.

Source: The Indian Express

Article: The Eurobomb (C.Raja Mohan)

Article Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/c-raja-mohan-writes-russias-nuclear-threat-may-force-europe-to-build-a-nuclear-arsenal-8174632/ 
Yojna daily current affairs 4 November

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