22 Sep 2022 India and the Eurasian Vacuum
Source: Indian Express
News: Till now India mostly relies on Russia to secure its interests in Eurasia but Ukraine’s invasion by Russia puts a question mark on Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.
Impact of India’s close ties with Russia/Soviet Union on the Eurasian region
- Free access to the Central Asian Republics in the Cold War era due to close ties with Russia.
- In the second half of the 1990s India worked with Russia and Iran to counter the Taliban in Afghanistan.
- For the regional balance of power, Russia supported India’s membership in the SCO despite China’s reservations.
- Even during India’s military confrontation with China in eastern Ladakh (2020), Russia was ready to supply arms to India.
Negative impact of Putin’s war with Ukraine:
- Russian invasion of Ukraine increased the insecurity of its close neighbors. If Russia can deny the independent existence of Ukraine it can do the same to other republics that were part of the Soviet Union. Example: Kazakhstan has been wary of its “strategic autonomy” from Russia ever since the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the occupation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine.
- Declining capacity of Russia to control and mediate conflicts within its Eurasian sphere of influence. For Example: Russia failed to resolve Tajikistan – Kyrgyzstan ( founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) border dispute and the Azerbaijan -Armenia conflict.
- Capitalization of Russia’s vulnerabilities by China: China is enhancing its engagement with Central Asian republics. President Xi recently announced support for Kazakhstan to preserve its national stability and development which is seen as a statement toward Russia‘s expansionist policy.
Current issues & their impact on New Delhi in the Eurasian region:
- Underdeveloped relationship of New Delhi in the Eurasian region due to the absence of geographic access and limited trade and investment ties.
- Rapid rise of China in the new millennium changing regional equations. China deep[ened its security ties with Moscow and became a leading economic partner of Central Asian states.
- Russia is struggling to retain its traditional primacy in inner Asia.
Way forward for India in Central Asia:
- India must look beyond Iran and tie up with its Arab friends like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to gain geographic access to inner Asia and pursue large-scale regional projects in Eurasia.
- Renewing engagement with Turkey: Turkey is another important force in Central Asia which was once known as Turkestan.
- Another important partner for India in the region is European Union, which is stepping up its engagement in the Eurasian region through its eastern initiative.
Conclusion: The weakening of the Russian sphere of influence created a Eurasian vacuum and unfamiliar geopolitical terrain for India, but it is also offering new possibilities.
Short Summary:
- Till now India relies on Russia and Iran to establish its relationship with inner Asia (northern and landlocked regions spanning North, Central, and East Asia). Even in turbulence India’s close ties with Russia provided smooth access to Central Asia. But Russia‘s Ukraine invasion and its unexpected outcome reduced the traditional primacy of Russia in inner Asia. Its neighbors are becoming insecure due to Russia’s expansionist policy and its sphere of influence in the Eurasian region is declining, it even failed to mediate conflicts within its Eurasian sphere of influence. China is utilizing this opportunity to become a prominent player in the Eurasian region. On the one hand, Russia is becoming indebted to China due to western sanctions while on the other hand, China is assuring Central Asian republics of their strategic autonomy from Russia. Now, India has to find new ways to secure its interests in inner Asia through the European Union, Turkey, and with the help of Arab friends like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Article: India and the Eurasian Vacuum (C. Raja Mohan)
Article Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/with-russias-declining-influence-india-needs-a-new-strategy-in-eurasia-8160821/
Yojna IAS Daily Current Affairs eng med 22 Sep
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